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How Auction Houses Set Estimates: The Four Numbers Behind a Valuation

2026-11-06 · Heritage Global

The most common confusion among collectors: why do different houses give different estimates for the same piece? A valuation is not a guess — it is the sum of four numbers. Understand them and you can judge whether an estimate is sound or inflated.

1. Comparables: the foundation

Any responsible estimate starts with public hammer prices — not asking prices — for the same type, period and tier. Asking prices that sat unsold for years prove nothing. More comparables, more recent, means a narrower, more credible range.

2. Condition: one hairline, one tier

Within the same type, perfect versus flawed examples often differ by thirty to one hundred per cent: cracks, losses, restored overpaint all subtract; original fitted boxes and old labels add. Disclose flaws before consigning — discovered later by buyers, they cost far more than money.

3. Provenance: the paper can outweigh the object

A documented history (old family collections, exhibitions, publication) versus blank provenance can double an estimate. Old photographs, receipts and early catalogues at home should always be provided — they are frequently worth more than expected.

4. Sale positioning: the venue sets the tier

Dedicated sale, evening sale, regular day sale, online-only — the estimate tier differs at each. Professional practice gives a conservative, mid and ambitious range: quick sale, regular placement, and a top tier requiring authentication, provenance and positioning.

A reference estimate is always a range. A single-point quote is rarely executable.
A reference estimate is always a range. A single-point quote is rarely executable.

To see how we work: read the six stages on the Process page, then submit via Consign — six or more photos at original resolution, and we will return a written valuation range on the four factors above.

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Porcelain & Ceramics →
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